Background
I invested one unit in a condominium at Genting which is Windmills Upon Hill.
I would like to estimate what would be the occupancy rate in Genting knowing that there are lots of hotels room available and few condominiums under construction such as Vista Residences, Midhills and Geo 38.
To estimate I need 2 major information
1) Number of visitors who going to stay at Genting
2) Number of rooms available either from hotels and short rental rooms like AirBnb or homestay.
From those 2 information, I calculated the occupancy rate for all rooms available at Genting.
1) Number of visitors who going to stay at Genting
To estimate number of staying visitors, few assumptions need to be made
1.1) Percentage of visitors who going to stay
1.2) How many visitors will stay together. Example family of 4 will stay in one room. They won’t stay in 4 rooms.
1.3) How many nights they going to stay
Then from there, I calculated the numbers of rooms required in a year.
To ensure that I have a baseline for the expected number of staying visitors, I took Year 2013 figure as I assume it is the actual visitors for the year but I use number of rooms as if all condominiums are all available to be rented out. While Year 2017, 2018, 2019 and Year 2020 are based on forecast number of visitors.
I calculated numbers of staying visitors based on the forecast figures to estimate whether the forecast staying figures can increase or not occupancy rate.
2) Number of Rooms Available
For number of rooms available I made few assumptions
2.1) All rooms or units will have capacity as same number of visitors stay together (refer to 1.2)
2.2) Only 60% of condominium units available will be rented out
2.3) Some missing number of rooms considered negligible.
So total of numbers of rooms available for short term renting are: 11,419.
Occupancy Rate
I calculated occupancy rate by dividing number of staying visitors by total rooms available. I distributed it equally through out the year. I don’t consider the peak and non peak seasons as it is hard to come out the estimation.
Based on 40% visitors will stay on average one night and with 3 visitors staying together, the occupancy rate produced as below.
If based on actual figures in Year 2013 and assuming all condominiums are all ready the occupancy rate is 61%.
If Genting able to attract 30M visitors by 2020, the occupancy rate would reach 96%.
Of course this assume that all units/rooms are equal in features. We all know that most visitors prefer going to First World hotel, hence high occupancy of the said hotel.
Control Figures
TODO section, to check occupany rate from AirBnB of Midhills and other completed condo
Reference: