Genting Rooms Occupancy Rate Estimation

Background

I invested one unit in a condominium at Genting which is Windmills Upon Hill.

I would like to estimate what would be the occupancy rate in Genting knowing that there are lots of hotels room available and few condominiums under construction such as Vista Residences, Midhills and Geo 38.

To estimate I need 2 major information
1) Number of visitors who going to stay at Genting
2) Number of rooms available either from hotels and short rental rooms like AirBnb or homestay.

From those 2 information, I calculated the occupancy rate for all rooms available at Genting.

1) Number of visitors who going to stay at Genting

To estimate number of staying visitors, few assumptions need to be made

1.1) Percentage of visitors who going to stay
1.2) How many visitors will stay together. Example family of 4 will stay in one room. They won’t stay in 4 rooms.
1.3) How many nights they going to stay

Then from there, I calculated the numbers of rooms required in a year.

To ensure that I have a baseline for the expected number of staying visitors, I took Year 2013 figure as I assume it is the actual visitors for the year but I use number of rooms as if all condominiums are all available to be rented out. While Year 2017, 2018, 2019 and Year 2020 are based on forecast number of visitors.

 

I calculated numbers of staying visitors based on the forecast figures to estimate whether the forecast staying figures can increase or not occupancy rate.

2) Number of Rooms Available

For number of rooms available I made few assumptions
2.1) All rooms or units will have capacity as same number of visitors stay together (refer to 1.2)
2.2) Only 60% of condominium units available will be rented out
2.3) Some missing number of rooms considered negligible.

total number of rooms at genting
total number of rooms at genting

So total of numbers of rooms available for short term renting are: 11,419.

Occupancy Rate

I calculated occupancy rate by dividing number of staying visitors by total rooms available. I distributed it equally through out the year. I don’t consider the peak and non peak seasons as it is hard to come out the estimation.

Based on 40% visitors will stay on average one night and with 3 visitors staying together, the occupancy rate produced as below.

occupancy rooms rate at genting
occupancy rooms rate at genting

If based on actual figures in Year 2013 and assuming all condominiums are all ready the occupancy rate is 61%.

If Genting able to attract 30M visitors by 2020, the occupancy rate would reach 96%.

Of course this assume that all units/rooms are equal in features. We all know that most visitors prefer going to First World hotel, hence high occupancy of the said hotel.

Control Figures

TODO section, to check occupany rate from AirBnB of Midhills and other completed condo

Reference:

Excel file to do the estimation

Malaysia Property Trend 2018 – 2020?

House price increase 5.3% if compare to last year which increase less than 1%

Market not good, now even good reputation developer starts to owe money to the property agent company RM500k below house still got little demand but rm500k house sales not moving, bungalow even worse, no sales record made since early of year till now.

Property market gets stagnant till the developers find the property agency to help and sell off the houses

Those houses project comes with GRR also being called off

Lots of developers give better offers to attract buyers to buy house when the houses are about to ready, this wont happen normally.

As agent, before this we focus on subsale, now many cant pay for downpayment, so they would opt for new project
Buy new house can save lots of money.

Many companies go bankrupt, some houses just get key also kena lelong
The DIBS project buyers normally are investors, not buying for own stay, may cause resale

Now developers and house owners berebut the market so the house couldnt sell off

I just done one sale, buyer bought the house at 480k and now tahan sakit sell off at rm380k. Rental also not so good market. Price drop from rm1900 to rm1300, now got lots of empty houses couldnt rent out

Before this market is very good, so the house owner berlagak
Now things change, bank needs to evaluate the house higher value then only ppl will buy

Now is the time for buyers take granted
The worst time hasnt come, later developers because want to survive, will give up even better offer to attract more buyers. The earlier buyers would pay hugher

After two to three years when the projects are ready, the resale of houses will get even worse
Rate of empty house is high

House owners are trapped in the war of fighting the price
Sales of property drop but property rental remains the same, just tat the rental price drops a lot esp in big city like KLCC, at its peak, 10k per month and now drop to rm6k, while some studios tat could rent at rm2k-3k now drop to less than rm2k. However rental price in outskirts area like cheras, sungai long drops lesser.

some investors don’t consider properly and thoroughly while buying the houses, they tot when the houses are ready then can rent out, and get 6% of profit, who knows the 6% of profits is not fixed profit as the houses are not guaranteed will get rent out

Try to thk and see, when a project is ready, there are thousand units, if 70% of it are investors, which mean there are 700 units waiting to rent out or for sales, this is really scary. This will lead to the war of fighting price, at tat point will see who has the holding power

He advises investors to calculate carefully before investing, or else it is very hard to earn money. Let say, u buy a unit at rm200k then do bank loan for 30years, every month pay for rm1000. First 5years installment, out of 85% are paying for the interest, not much pay for the principle, 6th year sell off at rm250k, u tot u earn rm50k? Deduct with the installment, legal fee, this fre thst fee, not every month got rental, house owners not earn but loss, the one earning is the bank, they earn for berapa puluh ribu

Many units kena lelong and it is very serious. I cant enclose the name but it is 100% fact. Developers sell at lowest peice, at ampang area, near a big east shopping mall, studio price is rm500k but not subsale price drops to rm400k. It was ready two years ago but the owners cant rent out so have to pay the interest, so they try to sell off hardly, whole project got 1600 units
Many lelong units now, price drops till rm400k also cant sell off. Not only ampang area but other area also same like bukit jalil

However some areas have good syarat just like blue chip share, everyone like it, even tho market not so good but the house price and rental price remain stable

Mont kiara doesn’t get affected by the poor market. This area got three popular international school, it is liked and prefered by local and foreigners, thu mont kiara rental is stable, unlike other area fluctuate largely

Many ppl tot that out of 10 units in mont kiara, 7 units are investors buy to rent but in fact it is not, 70% owner buy for own stay (mainly malaysia) while 30% for rent.

Mont kiara advantage is every project got its special, package is different, area size varies and age of property differs.
If u want to find studio, u have a wide range of choices from new house, area and design in which u cant get it in other area

Like KLCC, name is good but rental is so so only, all units not much different, look the same, many are small units. Dont assume that mont kiara is very expensive, u can still find rm400k units here, just that the building age is 20years.

Need to wait at least 10years for MRT to bring up the house price
Area near MRT are nearly sold out

Even tho property around MRT (pam) are very expensive, but keep money in bank will not increase its value. In other way, loss temporarily is okay, even if the price of pam cant rise shortly, but at least it can keep and remain the value, it is a not bad investment if you can rent out. In fact, pam is easier to rent out
He analyses, if pay bank rm2k, the rental is rm1.5k, if kena bayar extra rm500 is ok as money keep in bank lagi tidak bernilai. Thus, even pam is expensive but ppl still buy, if can rent out, it is an insurance for investors, as even poor market but pam still got demand.
However, another evaluator got different view because she thk tat developers ald calculate the benefits of pam in it, which mean buyers buy the house now at the future price
From investing angle, buy the house now at future price, the room of increments is slow. But if use the house at current price, it will follow market to increase

In fact, many units around mrt1 not only no incrase but drop
She thks mrt would definitely affect the house price but not in short term. Malaysia transportation system grows slowly, even now lrt and mrt are ready but the network and link are not complete and convenient yet, it just benefits the residents along the link

If want to wait till the system is complete and convenient, need to wait at least 10 years.

Take overseas as an example, to make the system complete and convenient, it takes around 20-30years at least. So if financial support tergendala,it would definitely affect to have a complete transportation network
She said lrt3 construction ald over the budget, to complete the project is a question

It is a negative cycle, if the transportation system is not complete, residents would not use it, adding up the maintenance fee which is not low, it would be burden for the gov

Now the market ald is ald at its lowest point, it needs two to three years to rebound. Expected 2018 economy will gets better because of the investment of China-TPPA etc

If TPPA is running as planned, malaysia vietnam and thailand will be the countries which get the most benefits bcz our labour cost is low and malaysia can speak English. But donald trump cancel the TPPA, so it hurts malaysia a lot

Foreign investment in malaysia will bring up the economy if depends on malaysia alone, the recovery would be slow

Exabytes Web Hosting Slow Support

Lately my web application being attacked by malware where the malware deletes important files and due to this, the website will produce 500 internal error.

Unfortunately during this festive season, Exabytes support is slow. It took them more than 2 hours to reply. As for now since 27/06/2017 – 830am till now I haven’t receive any reply from there.

I’m planning to migrate to other web hosting. Evaluating between serverfreak or shinjiru.